Orange County & Irvine Slammed by Slate.com Article

Mr. Daniel Gross of Slate.com unleashes a rancid torrent of truth about the Orange County housing market, with a special dose of vitriol - nicely delivered - for that carefully planned OC McCity called Irvine, which Mr. Gross generously dubs "a center of reckless real estate lending and borrowing" and "the nation's capital of real estate folly".

Until recently, Orange County was New Jersey to Los Angeles's New York -- upscale but generally ignored, and not nearly so chic or happening as its urbane neighbor. Television helped change the image with glitzy offerings such as "The O.C.," "Laguna Beach" and "The Real Housewives of Orange County." These shows portray the county's glittering beach communities as the capital of plastic surgery and extreme consumption. But inland, just over the hills, the massive planned community of Irvine has become the nation's capital of real estate folly.

Wow. Ouch.

Yeah, see that gaping wound I have right over there? Yeah, I'd like you to throw a fistful of salt in it please. What? No salt? Well, do you have terpentine?

Indeed sub-prime mortgage loans (even prime loans), irrational exhuberance for real estate of any shape, color or size, and financial illiteracy are indeed biting the OC middle class and even the more well-to-do.

But the Realtor told me everyone wants to live here

Think again.

Mr. Esmael Adibi, the Director of Chapman University's Anderson Center for Economic Research, and Mr. James Doti, the president and Donald Bren Distinguished Chair of Business and Economics of Chapman University, both claimed today that over the short-term fewer people will be migrating to Orange County, California.

Why? Here's the article from the Daily Pilot.

Mr. Adibi:

"Orange County is going to be a strong economy no matter what, but there will be fewer people moving in because of high housing prices and unaffordability," said Doti, the president and Donald Bren Distinguished Chair of Business and Economics at Chapman. "But we hope in the coming years, that will subside because of the natural amenities this county offers."Those amenities, Doti said, included the county's landscape, its educational system and its bustling arts scene.

Also, he said, the increased reliance on exports would turn the area into a trading hub."Global trade will be greatest with Asia, Southeast Asia and the trading port for much of that will be Southern California," he said.

A problem for the county, according to Doti and Adibi, was the housing market, which was slowing due to high mortgage rates and a decrease in the population — between the ages of 25 and 49 — that usually bought homes. Adibi said the average Orange County family paid 49.8% of its gross income on mortgage payments last year, a record amount.

While we keep reading how the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors wish to position themselves and staunch advocates of affordable housing, it's not quite making it happen on the streets of Orange County.

Median home prices in Orange Country rose again in May by 0.8% to $635,000.

I mean, when you think about it, why would realtors want home prices to come down to affordable levels when that would have an adverse affect on their income (6% of the home value sale)? I guess, you'd have to assume then that a home sale at any price, even if it's lower, is better than no sale at all. And a commission check is better than no commission check at all.

OK.

Good to be clear about what's important to realtors - and to what extent they are truly interested in affordable home prices in Orange County.