Greenacres: The Place to Be?

In 2005 life was obviously very good in Orange County, California. There were so many things you could see, do and achieve. It never really mattered how much money you actually earned from your employment or what you're disposable income looked like after all expenses and debt payments. All that mattered during this glorious slice of time was how much you could borrow. Banks throughout the land enabled all Americans - both rich and not so rich - to borrow heaps and heaps of dough.

It is shocking to consider the shear amount of money that Californians not only borrowed to buy their primary residence or investment property, which was sometimes $500,000 or even more, but also how much they borrowed on top of all of that in the form of HELOCs (home equity lines of credit) loans, which the consumer could use...well, for almost anything from a set of new kitchen counter tops, to a new Harley-Davidson motorcycle, to a vacation for two in the Azores. It didn't matter what you're net paycheck looked like, or your next paycheck for that matter.
The banks who gave lent the money did not care. So why should anyone have cared?

Here's a single family house in Mission Viejo that was first listed for sale June 20, 2005, a full three months after it was purchased in March 2005 for a whopping $930,000.

What's interesting is how this house was listed and then delisted over and over again in utter futility over a period of 4 years. Why?

Today (June 2010) it is listed once again for sale at $715,000. With a 20% down payment of $143,000, the income requirement to purchase this bad boy is $141,500 assuming 5% mortgage and zero other monthly debt liabilities (I've always been interested to know just how many people in Mission Viejo bought their cars for cash, i.e. have no auto loan(s)) This home is located in the Capistrano Unified School District, which is on it's 7th superintendent in just 4 years. Given the recent district turmoil from questionable past leadership and the impact of the California budget crisis might be something for prospective buyers with families to think long and hard about.

28861 Greenacres, Mission Viejo, CA 92692
4 bed
2.5 bath
2,800 sq. feet
6,000 sq. foot lot
457 days on market (technically speaking yes, but based on original list date)
Asking: $715,000 (Correction - MOVED UP TO $745,000 on day of post!)
Last Purchase: March 2005, $930,000

HEYYYY! Great to see you again! Where have you been!?

This is a beautiful house. The owners took good care of it. But given recent comparable sales (comps) of like size and features that have sold in the $650K range, Greenacres comes back to us somewhat (update: way) overpriced. This is common to see everywhere in Orange County, I believe, whenever sellers and banks try to place a tourniquet on monumental financial mistakes of the past.

The thing is, it's been 4 freaking years since the original purchase. I mean, I don't know what it was listed for in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 (I wish Redfin kept a history of this), but hasn't the train sort of left the station already on $745,000?

We'll soon see.

And Realtors Wept - Part II

As a follow-up to the previous post And Realtors Wept, the hits keep coming:

American Home Mortgage has offically declared bankruptcy today according to Bloomberg.

Where is that cushy mattress when you need it?

Cramer Says: "Dump Your House"!

Jim Cramer from CNBC on the collossal housing crash and whether you should keep paying your mortgage on a so-called "asset" declining in value, or just dump your losses and rent.

Very compelling statement also on prioritization of paying your bills: Pay off credit cards first, THEN pay your mortgage.

Nice!

Transcript Courtesy of Housing Doom:

Here's the video link: http://tinyurl.com/2kqgnf

Transcript:

Torabi: "I have to bring up a video we did yesterday that was entitled ‘Walk away from your house’". Torabi: "Jim Cramer says, y’know, ‘there is a time to walk away from your house’. To re-visit the video yesterday, you said, ‘when your house is down 20%, essentially, when you have no more equity left…’"

Cramer: "Right"Torabi: "…that’s a good time to sell…"

Cramer: "Yeah"Torabi: "… but what [unintelligible] because that"

Cramer: "Well not just sell, to walk away. You can’t sell it."

Torabi: "How do you walk away?"

Cramer: "Well you just default on the mortgage. It makes huge economic sense. You go rent. Uh, you don’t want to lose your job, so you keep your car. Uh, you keep your credit cards so you can buy, and all that really happens is is that you made a bet and you lost, so don’t compound it by continuing to pay."

Torabi: "Now the hierarchy of debt, you were saying also that y’know, your credit card debt should be less of a priority than if your house is losing value"

Cramer: "Oh, yeah, credit cards are much more important than your house. Remember, your house is only a good bet if you can build equity. But if you are going to lose money each month, you might as well rent. You shouldn’t own."

Torabi: "And, but, yesterday you’re also saying there are no places in this country where there is value in homes. A lot of homes are depreciating…"

Cramer: "No, No, there is no place where [mumble] you wouldn’t be down on your home if you bought it in 2006, that’s what the issue is. So, I’m saying that buying homes in 2006 was like buying the Nasdaq in February of 2000. They’re very very similar - it was better to be margined out than to continue to put capital against those Nasdaq stocks."

Cramer: "There was a report this morning by David, I believe it was David, uh, Blitzer, on, when I was on with the wonderful and fabulous Erin Burnett and it was that the, some housing prices have, uh, been, have actually stopped going down and some are going up and I just think that’s not true. I think, like, bad CDOs, and, like, bad leveraged loans, the actual mark to market is down everywhere. I get that from the 5 homebuilders whose conference calls I listen to. There are no up markets, and there are markets that are falling 20-30%, and those are the ones where it’s much smarter to walk away from your house."

Torabi: "Is the 20-30%… what’s that based on, or is that just…"

Cramer: "It’s where the, uh, purchase prices are, uh, when you back in the discounts. The discounts are very hard to see, cause all the homebuilders do two things: One is is that they offer incentives that don’t surface, so the list price is $250,000, but you’ll get rebates just like a car, so the list price of a car is $25,000, y’know, but you’re really only paying $18,000, so take in that, and the second thing is is that there’ll be Realtors, and what’ll happen is is that you’ll say ‘look - the list price is $225,000′, but you can negotiate down and go $190,000. I’m using the negotiable prices.

Cramer: "This is happening in the inland empire, in Sacramento, uh, it’s happening in Phoenix, it’s happening in Denver, and it’s happening in Las Vegas, and in southern California, uh, anywhere near the bread, the so-called bread basket, Modesto, these are all places where there’s tremendous overbuilding, and where it may pay to leave your house."

Hey Jim,

"Boo-Yah!" from overpriced and overvalued Orange County, Southern California.

Orange County & Irvine Slammed by Slate.com Article

Mr. Daniel Gross of Slate.com unleashes a rancid torrent of truth about the Orange County housing market, with a special dose of vitriol - nicely delivered - for that carefully planned OC McCity called Irvine, which Mr. Gross generously dubs "a center of reckless real estate lending and borrowing" and "the nation's capital of real estate folly".

Until recently, Orange County was New Jersey to Los Angeles's New York -- upscale but generally ignored, and not nearly so chic or happening as its urbane neighbor. Television helped change the image with glitzy offerings such as "The O.C.," "Laguna Beach" and "The Real Housewives of Orange County." These shows portray the county's glittering beach communities as the capital of plastic surgery and extreme consumption. But inland, just over the hills, the massive planned community of Irvine has become the nation's capital of real estate folly.

Wow. Ouch.

Yeah, see that gaping wound I have right over there? Yeah, I'd like you to throw a fistful of salt in it please. What? No salt? Well, do you have terpentine?

Indeed sub-prime mortgage loans (even prime loans), irrational exhuberance for real estate of any shape, color or size, and financial illiteracy are indeed biting the OC middle class and even the more well-to-do.

OC California: "Unbelievable how many people were conned into taking these mortgages"

State of California homeowners, as of July 2007, rank second to only Nevada with the most frequent use of the f-word.

Foreclosure, that is.

The OC Register reports that in Orange County foreclosure filings totaled 1,647 in June, or one for every 589 households. That's down about 8 percent from May, but more than doubled the total compared to June 2006.

There were over nine thousand filings in Orange County, California over the first six months of 2007, over three times the number of foreclosure filings during the same period in 2006.

The OC Register article quotes Dr. Walter Hahn, an Irvine-based real estate economist and consultant, who says that foreclosures will increase going into 2009. Hahn says millions of subprime borrowers and real estate speculators will see their introductory "teaser rates" adust and will not be able to afford higher payments.

"It is just unbelievable how many people were conned into taking these mortgages," Hahn said.

Would we call it that?

Dr. Walter Hahn, 40 years of real estate experience in Southern California

I mean, being "conned" into taking a mortgage? That sounds like pretty strong language, while admittedly probably not as strong as the other f-word being used with just as high frequency in 1 out of every 589 OC households right about now. I don't know. Being conned into doing something sounds so criminal!

There are hundreds of OC mortgage brokers out there still touting the merits of interest-only and pay option ARM loans. Is it OK that people are still being "conned"? Maybe these mortgage brokers are just trying to do their part and contribute to the greater good of Orange County society because they know something most of us do not. Perhaps the rate of interest that the layperson sees today are at an all-time high, while OC mortgage brokers sees lower rates on the horizon?

And what role did Realtors play in selling these homes to home debtors in Orange County?
Did they assuage home debtor concerns about the balloon mortgages, saying it would all be OK and that they could "just refinance in a couple of years"?

Let's remember that the OC median home price was around $600,000 per unit in 2005.
Median gross incomes for families in Orange County, CA hovered at around $75,000 per annum. Those two market variables (some like to call them fundamentals) don't always make good bedfellows, unless you can get creative. Real creative. To buy a home with such an income, well, let's just say it would take "some doing". And some outside of California, where home values tend to be a little more grounded with reality, might call creative home financing "cheating". But let's not use that word. Let's just say the OC realtor found a homebuyer, and just referred them to a "great contact" of theirs in the mortgage business, and, abracapocus, deal is sealed. The homebuyer is now a glorified OC homedebtor and welcomed to the exclusive club! Over there is my accountant Skippy, and over there is my broker, Scooter, and next to the hearth, my realtor-niece Buffy! See you at the martini bar! Don't forget, tee off at 10:00 sharp!

Now fast forward to July 2007. A number of those better-than-median incomed OC homedebtors are falling hopelessly behind with their mortgages. Notices of default are three times what they were a year ago. Lending standards have tightened dramatically in most corners. Inventory of OC homes are increasing. Several large mortgage lenders (many based in Orange County) have gone out of business entirely. Some smaller lenders are trying desperately to stay in business. Meanwhile, Realtors are left scrambling on deck, unsure what message should be relayed to prospective clients: "What are we supposed to say again? 'It's a great time to buy' or 'houses are staying on the market longer than they used to'? "Oh God, what do we say now? What do we say!?"

And the pay option arms and interest-only loans? Hey, whether you need them or not, these same mortgage financing intruments that were used to "con" millions of OC home debtors? They are still in the front window of most banks and lending institutions here, here and here.
Fact is, the instruments might very well make sense to prospective homebuyers who have money to burn, strong cashflow, financial flexibility, and are somehow not averse to interest rate risk of any kind.

"Unbelievable how many people were conned into taking these mortgages".

True. Very true, but nobody put a gun to anyone's head.

And so it is. Caveat emptor, Orange County. Caveat-freaking-emtor!

There's a New Mortgage in Town

Washington Mutual is promoting a new type of mortgage vehicle under their MortgagePlus program that would allow a homedebtor to switch from a fixed rate mortgage to a variable/adjustable rate mortgage and back again for a nominal fee.

And the mortgage creativity hits keep coming!

A Little HELP From My.......Friends?

Well, it's about time!

I mean, when you're financially strapped and upside down on your home mortgage, there's absolutely nothing wrong with raising your heavy hand and asking for a little help.

Those California homedebtors microns away from going postal due to pending foreclosure and bankruptcy should be relieved to learn that H.E.L.P. will indeed be arriving!
Home Experts for Loan Preforeclosure, that is.

A stellar organization of H.E.L.P.ers will soon be opening offices all over the country in the coming months, including lovely, sunny, everyone-wants-to-live-here, 15%-home-value-growth-is-in-the-bag-for-2006-because-Gary-Watts-said-so-California.

What fantastic news for those strapped homedebtors! When you're in deep financial trouble, it's just great for someone to take the time out of their busy day to bend down, extend a hand and lift you out of the cesspool of real estate hopelessness.

I mean, just read what the article has to say about these unfortunate souls:

"There is a burgeoning of news items of home owners having to sell their properties as rising tide foreclosures of the collapsing subprime mortgage market. These generalities and statistics often obscure the real human tragedies that lie behind such stories. HELP works to make sure people can stop foreclosure, and raise funds against their properties to settle with pressing creditors."

Well, a great many of these human tragedies could have been avoided with a little financial literacy, a whole lot less stupidity, and greed by the dolts who signed the dotted line, ......but let's not get into that now.

This development is super-duper, and I don't want to sour the moment.

Gee, I wonder who these Experts are, and where they have been for the last 5 years prior to the train derailment that is the real estate industry as we are coming to know it?

You know, far be it from me to ask a dumb-ass question here, but could it be...I mean, is it just possible that these so called freaking "Experts" are the same kind of goofball "Experts" that got you into this f'ed-up financial suicide mess in the firstplace?

Unfortunately at this point in the game, it's not like the upsidedowners have a Disneyland-long line of ethical, real-estate professionals to turn to for help right now.

"No, I get by with a little help from my friends. I get high with a little help from my friends. Could it be anybody?......"